The Toronto Maple Leafs began the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs with a whimper instead of a bang, losing 5-1 to the Bruins in Boston.
After starting the game with the first four shots and a couple of scoring chances, a bad read by Ryan Reaves on a pinch by Joel Edmundson sent fourth-liners Jesper Boqvist and John Beecher away on a 2-on-1. Timothy Liljegren failed to block a cross-ice pass from Boqvist to Beecher, and Ilya Samsonov was unable to get across on time to stop Beecher’s shot from getting by him.
Ryan Reaves Made a Huge Mistake Being Over Zealous
The biggest faux pas of the play was by Reaves. Reaves could see that Edmundson was pinching and he was already skating in the right direction to back him up properly. Instead, he decided to stop and hit Patrick Maroon, a player Edmundson already had covered. If Reaves had remained on his trajectory, he would have been well ahead of Boqvist on the play and in a position where he could have used his body to prevent Boqvist from going anywhere.
Boston carried the play until the last minute of the first period when the Maple Leafs had a couple of good shifts and three decent scoring chances.
The first period ended 1-0 Boston.
The Second Period Mirrored the First Period for Both the Maple Leafs and the Bruins
Toronto started the second period the way they finished the first period. A cross-checking call on Hampus Lindholm at the end of the second period gave the Maple Leafs a four-on-three power play. With the extra man, they had another three good scoring chances, plus a partial breakaway by Calle Jarnkrok once the penalty had expired. But Boston goalie Jeremy Swayman stopped them all.
Boston once again scored on their first shot of the second period as they did in the first. After a dump and change by Maroon, Matthews Knies turned the puck over to Jake Debrusk, causing a scramble at the Toronto end. Charlie Coyle thwarted a clearing attempt by Simon Benoit, and the Bruins won a couple of puck battles along the boards before Debrusk found Brandon Carlo at the top of the faceoff circle to Samsonov’s left. Carlo one-timed a slapshot that beat a screened Samsonov on his stick side.
Just before that Auston Matthews beat Swayman to a loose puck and bounced the puck off the post while looking at a wide-open net.
Special Teams Were a Difference in the Bruins’ Success
From that point on, special teams were the difference. The Bruins scored twice on the power play while the Maple Leafs failed to score on two power plays of their own. All told, Boston went 2 for 5 with the man advantage, and Toronto went 0 for 3.
Trent Frederic would add an empty net goal to close the scoring at 5-1 Bruins.
Toronto did get a third-period goal from David Kampf. Reaves knocked down a Benoit point shot and Connor Dewar found Kampf with the puck after it deflected off Reaves’ stick. That made the score 4-1.
While Samsonov didn’t play badly in the game, and you can’t say that any of the Boston goals were bad goals that Samsonov should have stopped, Swayman was the better goalie and the difference maker.
The Maple Leafs Out-Chanced the Bruins
In my opinion, each team’s main goal is to create High-Danger Scoring Chances. I don’t care how many shots or shot attempts a team has. The majority of those never have a chance of achieving an actual goal. The idea of the game is to work the puck into areas of the ice where it has a decent chance of ending up in the net.
The Maple Leafs did a much better job creating High-Danger Scoring Chances in this game. According to Naturalstattrick.com, at 5-on-5, Toronto had 15 High-Danger Chances compared to Boston’s six. In all situations, the Maple Leafs’ High-Danger Chances were 20-8.
Analytics Favored the Maple Leafs, Yet …
Another good indicator of how the two teams played is Expected Goals. At 5-on-5, Toronto had 59.4% of the Expected Goals, while Boston had 40.6%. The Maple Leafs had the edge 55.1% to 44.6% in all situations. Putting that into actual goal numbers, according to Naturalstattrick, the Expected Goals in the game were 4.54 for Toronto and 3.7 for Boston. If we had rounded up the numbers, the expected score for the game would have been 5-4 Maple Leafs.
If we compare High-Danger Chances to Goals Scored, Boston had eight High-Danger Chances and scored five goals, while Toronto had 20 High-Danger Chances and scored only one goal.
The Difference? Goaltending.
The three-star selection reflects that. Jeremy Swayman was the #1 star of the game, deservedly so.
Other Notes
Head Coach Sheldon Keefe talked about bad penalties after the game. He specifically mentioned Max Domi and the slash on Brad Marchand’s wrist. I thought Domi was over the top in his interactions with Marchand, and lucky he wasn’t penalized at the opening faceoff. I’m sure Domi is trying to message Marchand that his antics won’t be tolerated. However, in reality, Domi fell into the “Marchand trap” and did exactly the things that Marchand wanted him to do. Domi has to be more disciplined than that.
The Maple Leafs did an excellent job of matching the Bruins’ physicality. There were 100 registered hits in the game, with the two teams splitting them 50/50. Except for one, every skater on the Toronto roster registered a hit in the game. That one player? That was 6-foot-5, 220-pound defenceman Joel Edmundson.
Based on the eye test, I thought Edmundson was very passive. He passed up numerous opportunities to lay the body on opposing forwards. The Maple Leafs acquired Edmundson for that part of his game. If he wants to remain in the lineup, he needs to be much more effective physically.
After being the Maple Leafs’ best player in the playoffs last season, Morgan Rielly was a non-factor in this game. He was the only defenseman who was minus-2 in plus/minus. I thought the other four defensemen all played well. Benoit, McCabe, and Lyubsuhkin all punished Boston players any chance they got. Additionally, Liljegren played a relatively error-free game.
What’s Next?
While a 5-1 loss is not the result the Maple Leafs wanted, there are some positive things they can take away from this game. They carried the play for the most part at 5-on-5. If we look back at last year, they lost the first game to Tampa 7-3 and then bounced back and won Game 2 7-2.
While Toronto had the better scoring chances at 5-on-5, they needed to create more traffic and chaos in front of the Boston net. They must make it harder for whichever goalie they faced to see and play the puck.
Despite giving up four goals, I expect Samsonov to return to the net for Game 2.
Who Might Return for the Maple Leafs?
With the silence on the injury situation, we don’t know how close William Nylander is to coming back. With the game plan being to spread the offense over three lines, having him out of the lineup leaves a big hole in that plan. It would be nice if Bobby McMann were also available, but my gut tells me he is more of a long-term thing. They miss his physicality up front.
I wonder if we will see any changes on the blue line. Keefe could replace Edmundson on the third pair with TJ Brodie. I expect Brodie to be hungry after being a healthy scratch in the first game.
Regardless of who plays and who doesn’t, if the Maple Leafs want to win this series, their goaltending has to be on par with the Bruins’s goalie play.